Almost there...

I wanted to rant about how rubbish Northern ireland are at the minute, but I decided instead to give a short resumé on what Scotland have to do to qualify for the euro, after their amazing win in Paris today. The table looks like this: (top two qualify)

Group II	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	For	Against	Points	Goal Difference	Max
Scotland	9	7		2	17	7	21	10	30
Italy	9	6	2	1	15	7	20	8	29
France	9	6	1	2	15	3	19	12	28
Ukraine	8	4	1	3	10	9	13	1	25
Lithuania	9	3	1	5	7	11	10	-4	19
Georgia	9	2	1	6	14	15	7	-1	16
Faeroes	9	0	0	9	3	29	0	-26	9

Max means maximum available points. Lithuania, Georgia and the Faeroe Islands cannot qualify.

Now, France, Ukraine and Italy all have a game against the Faeroe Islands, and you would also expect these sides to beat Georgia and Lithuania at home. Thus, the top four table is (effectively), not taking into account changes in goal difference:

Group II	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	For	Against	Points	Goal Difference	Max
Italy	11	8	2	1	15	7	26	8	29
France	11	8	1	2	15	3	25	12	28
Scotland	9	7		2	17	7	21	10	30
Ukraine	9	5	1	3	10	9	16	1	25

We see that Ukraine are effectively out of it.

The remaining games involving these sides are:
13/10 Scotland v Ukraine
17/10 Georgia v Scotland
17/11 Lithuania v Ukraine
Scotland v Italy
21/11 Ukraine v France

Seven points would see Scotland qualify ahead of France, because the deciding factor between two teams level on points is the aggregate score between them (i.e. 2-0 to Scotland). However, a victory over Italy and a victory over either Ukraine or Georgia would also seal qualification.

So it's still a tough task to make it certain, but it means that victory over Italy is not essential in the last game. However, the last thing we want is to need Ukraine to beat France on the last day. History shows that these things don't always go one's way...

See you in Austria!